𝗪𝗵𝗲𝗻 𝗦𝗼𝗺𝗲𝗼𝗻𝗲 𝗣𝗿𝗼𝗺𝗶𝘀𝗲𝘀 𝟭𝟮𝟭% 𝗥𝗲𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗻𝘀, 𝗔𝘀𝗸 𝗤𝘂𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 Webstar Technology Group just bought a 10-acre site in Atlanta for $34.5M using seller financing. "Webstar will ultimately build a more than 8.4M SF mixed-use destination valued at more than $3.7B on the site, according to the Forge Atlanta website. Webstar projects that the development will produce $4.5B in profit and a 121% internal rate of return over the next 20 years." - Biznow article (Link Below) This made me laugh out loud. In real life, ground-up development targets 15–25% IRR when everything goes right. That’s the high end of real estate because the risk is stacked. No cash flow for years. Entitlement risk. Construction overruns. Market shifts during lease-up. A 121% IRR would make this one of the most successful developments in U.S. history. Here’s what development actually looks like: Entitlements take 6–24 months in friendly cities. Longer in others. Construction runs 12–24 months. Lease-up takes another 6–12 months. You’re 2–5 years in before meaningful cash flow, burning capital the whole way. Every delay compresses returns. This pitch isn’t aimed at experienced real estate investors. It’s aimed at people without a baseline for what development returns look like. They haven’t lived through a six-month entitlement delay. Or the moment a GC comes back $3M over budget. When something sounds off, ask questions: 1. What drawings exist today, and what phase are they in? Concept, schematic, design development, or full construction documents. 2. How was the project priced, by whom, and is it a hard bid or a guess? GC-backed pricing or third-party estimate. What is included and excluded? 3. What approvals are required, what’s already secured, and what’s the realistic timeline? Not the best case. The probable case. 4. What contingency is carried, who controls it, and what happens if costs come in 10–15% higher? Every real project tests this. 5. Who is actually writing equity checks today, and who is the lender? Committed capital, not “targeted.” Real terms, not placeholders. If the answers are vague, you got a dreamer, not a developer. Development is hard. The best teams in the country target 15–25%. When someone promises 121%, they either don’t understand the business or they’re selling something else. Let’s see what happens when that seller note comes due. https://lnkd.in/ev3qgiUY