𝗪𝗲 𝗠𝗮𝘆 𝗕𝗲 𝗕𝗮𝗰𝗸 𝗶𝗻 𝗕𝘂𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗲𝘀𝘀—𝗕𝘂𝘁 𝗪𝗲’𝗿𝗲 𝗡𝗼𝘁 𝗕𝗮𝗰𝗸 𝗶𝗻 𝗥𝗲𝗮𝗹𝗶𝘁𝘆. Commercial real estate volume is rising. Q2 deal volume up 18% H1 2025 CRE investment spending up 25% CBRE, BlackRock, Starwood, Cortland—writing big checks again But let’s not confuse motion with opportunity. A lot of firms are like sharks: they have to swim to stay alive. Not because the deals make sense—but because they have to feed the machine. Big corporate staff. Heavy overhead. Fund structures that require velocity. If they stop doing deals, the firm doesn’t slow down—it dies. That’s a terrible position for an investment business to be in. Sometimes it takes time to find great deals. But time isn’t a luxury when your business model is built on constant motion. The agency problem is in full force. Here’s what I’m seeing: • Some good deals exist—but most in the Southeast are still overpriced • Many were bought at the peak in 2021–2022, and now the owners are looking to get out—or get lucky • Rent growth? Didn’t happen. – Insurance is up over 82%, with worse coverage – Onsite payroll is up ~12% YoY, according to NAHB – CapEx is catching up with those lipstick rehabs—plumbing, HVAC, roofs, you name it We’ll buy any deal that hits our return targets. But this isn’t a buyer’s market. It isn’t a seller’s market. It’s a UNCERTAIN market. Case in point: A deal in Atlanta just traded for $69M to a large investor. We underwrote that same deal at $59M—and it was a stretch. It needed significant capital investment due to age. Maybe they’re deferring that work. Maybe they’re still projecting high rents—even as we’re seeing 1–2 months free across the market. Maybe they’ve penciled in magically low operating expenses. History hasn’t been kind to investors who neglect their assets. And their debt had better be cheap—for their investors’ sake. Deals like this make me scratch my head. They’re either smarter than me (always possible)… Or just better at lying to themselves—and their investors. https://lnkd.in/epst8euS