Writing ยท AI / Automation / Tech
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Sam Altman promised 2025 would be the year AI agents โjoin the workforce.โ
It wasnโt.
The New Yorker just autopsied why. Two insights worth your time:
First, the architecture mismatch.
LLMs are pattern-matching engines. We trained them to predict the next word, not to model cause and effect. Then we asked them to book hotels, navigate websites, and complete multi-step tasks requiring actual reasoning.
One demo tried planning a road trip to all 30 MLB stadiums. It included a stop in the middle of the Gulf of Mexico.
Thatโs what happens when you force probabilistic text generators to do deterministic work.
Second, the feedback loop problem.
Coding agents actually work. GitHub Copilot, Cursor, Replit; they ship real value. Why?
Because code has binary feedback. It compiles or it doesnโt. The agent gets immediate, clear signals about success or failure.
But โbook me a good hotelโ has no such loop. Good for who? Measured how? The agent generates a plan with 18 sub-steps, each requiring judgment calls on undefined weights and preferences. One wrong move at step 4 and youโre sleeping in a hostel.
No feedback mechanism can save you when the task itself is squishy.
The tasks AI handles well arenโt the ones we thought. Itโs not about complexity. Itโs about whether the environment gives clear, fast feedback.
Coding: binary signals, immediate results.
Hotel booking: subjective goals, delayed feedback, no clear win condition.
We optimized for the appearance of intelligence over the substance of capability. Built systems that write fluently about any topic but canโt reliably accomplish a single real-world task.
The article quotes Andrej Karpathy, OpenAI co-founder: agents are โcognitively lackingโ and โitโs just not working.โ
Even Altman quietly backed off in an internal memo. OpenAI is deemphasizing agents to focus on its core chatbot.
Tasks with tight feedback loops get automated.
Tasks requiring judgment in ambiguous contexts stay human.
Thatโs not a technology limitation for 2025. Thatโs an architecture reality.
Source: Cal Newport, The New Yorker, โWhy A.I. Didnโt Transform Our Lives in 2025โ
https://lnkd.in/eZHuR7e3