Writing · Capital / Finance / Investing

2024-11-01
These investors are essentially volunteering to lose money from day one—paying more in debt service than they're receiving in operating income. It's like buying a restaurant where the cost of ingredients exceeds the menu prices, hoping that someday you'll be able to charge $50 for a hamburger. Maybe it works on some value-added deals, but I am skeptical about it due to the current economic uncertainties. Looking at these numbers, we see cap rates in Atlanta's apartment market at the 5.08-5.70% range, while Fannie Mae wants 6.38-6.78% for its money. That's what we call "negative leverage," a fancy term for "bleeding cash flow." These optimists are betting on four horses: The Fed will keep cutting rates, and cap rates will fall or stay flat. Rents will keep climbing. They can squeeze more efficiency out of operations. The general economy will have a soft landing. These investors are essentially writing options against themselves—and the premium better be worth the risk. The spread between cap rates and interest rates isn't just troublesome math; it's a significant risk that leaves little room for error in your underwriting. Who knows, maybe they will be right and sell these deals at four caps with better income and operations. Remember what happened to those who bought Miami condos in 2006, thinking they could flip them before the music stopped? Each generation forgets the lessons from the past. Ask anyone who had to explain to their investors in 2007 why "this time was different.
Capital / Finance / InvestingOperations / Property ManagementSales / NegotiationReal Estate (general)

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