SpaceX wants to go public at 94x revenue. Facebook listed at 11x and people thought that was insane. The target valuation is $1.75 trillion. To justify it, you have to believe a few things. You have to believe Starlink will grow from 10 million subscribers to 1.2 billion. Only about 1 billion people on the planet earn more than $32 a day. And those people mostly already have faster, cheaper wired broadband. You have to believe xAI is worth $250 billion. It generated $120 million in revenue in the first nine months of 2025 while burning $1 billion a month. It spends its annual revenue every six days. Musk himself just said it “was not built right the first time” and is being rebuilt from scratch. You have to believe orbital data centers, moon factories, and electromagnetic rail guns will work. The U.S. Navy spent $500 million over 16 years on rail gun technology and gave up. People who bet against Elon have lost a lot of money. Tesla skeptics got steamrolled. SpaceX is a remarkable engineering company. Catching a 70-meter booster with giant robot arms is science fiction made real! But “Elon might pull it off” and “this is a well-priced investment” are two completely different questions. The price might not need to make sense. Because the real engineering isn’t in the rockets. It’s in the float. SpaceX is expected to release only 5-10% of total shares. Tiny supply. Massive retail demand. Then the index trap: Musk reportedly made early NASDAQ 100 inclusion a condition for listing. The exchange is consulting on a rule to let SpaceX in after just 15 trading days. Every other company waits a year. S&P is considering similar fast-tracking, with roughly $24 trillion indexed to the S&P 500. Every index fund, every pension fund, every 401(k) that tracks these indexes becomes a forced buyer at whatever price the supply squeeze has manufactured. We’ve seen this before. Tesla joined the S&P 500 in December 2020 after a massive run-up. Since inclusion day, it’s underperformed the broader index by more than 20%. The passive investors who were forced to buy at peak valuation became the bag holders while early insiders took their exits. SpaceX might be an extraordinary company. Extraordinary companies can still be terrible investments at the wrong price. SpaceX can defy gravity. Stock prices eventually can’t. https://lnkd.in/eVxGchRX