Writing · Pricing / Revenue Management
''Just as investors began to accept rate cuts may not be forthcoming, a weak jobs report this month flipped the narrative. Wednesday’s consumer price index report, which saw inflation dip below 3% for the first time since 2021, has buoyed expectations that the Fed will cut rates in September, adding liquidity to the commercial real estate market.
“A lot of the dry powder is either, one, waiting for interest rates to come down or, two, waiting for massive distress, and that's not really seeming to develop,” said Holly MacDonald-Korth, CEO of bridge lender and investment firm KDM Financial. “I’m not sure if another shoe is going to drop in that department.”
In past cycles, the expectation of rate cuts could be enough to bring sidelined capital back into the market. But the whipsaw of competing economic signals has led investors to take a wait-and-see approach rather than include guesswork in their underwriting, MacDonald-Korth said.
“Given the volatility we've seen over the last 12 months, I don't think anyone's pricing anything in beyond a few days from now,” she said.''
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