Writing · Capital / Finance / Investing
In all cases, the people who sell the machinery—and, by and large, even the internal bureaucrats urging you to buy the equipment—show you projections with the amount you’ll save at current prices with the new technology. 𝐇𝐨𝐰𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐫, 𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐲 𝐝𝐨𝐧’𝐭 𝐝𝐨 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐭𝐞𝐩 𝐨𝐟 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐚𝐧𝐚𝐥𝐲𝐬𝐢𝐬, 𝐰𝐡𝐢𝐜𝐡 𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐝𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐦𝐢𝐧𝐞 𝐡𝐨𝐰 𝐦𝐮𝐜𝐡 𝐢𝐬 𝐠𝐨𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐭𝐨 𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐨𝐦𝐞 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐡𝐨𝐰 𝐦𝐮𝐜𝐡 𝐢𝐬 𝐣𝐮𝐬𝐭 𝐠𝐨𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐭𝐨 𝐟𝐥𝐨𝐰 𝐭𝐡𝐫𝐨𝐮𝐠𝐡 𝐭𝐨 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐭𝐨𝐦𝐞𝐫. I never seen a single projection incorporating that second step in my life. And I see them all the time. Rather, they always read, “This capital outlay will save you so much money that it will pay for itself in three years.”
Poor Charlie’s Almanack
Charles T. Munger, Peter D. Kaufman, John Collison, and Warren Buffett
This wisdom from Charlie Munger perfectly captures the hidden complexity in some of these CRE investments.
For Example:
Energy efficiency upgrades tout utility savings but rarely analyze how much can be recaptured through expense stops and base year resets in modified gross leases.
Resident experience apps project increased satisfaction and retention but seldom quantify how much this translates to actual rent premiums rather than simply meeting evolving market expectations.
Look beyond gross savings to understand capturable value. The ROI story isn't complete until you analyze what you can retain versus what the market will force you to pass through.