I was just discussing this issue... thought you would find it interesting as well. "If a test for a disease is 98% accurate, and you test positive, the probability you actually have the disease is not 98%. In fact, the more rare the disease, the lower the probability that a positive result means you actually have it, despite that 98% accuracy. The difference lies in the rules of conditional or contingent probability." https://lnkd.in/dswu38T