Writing · Leasing & Conversion

2026-05-18
Goodhart’s Law, explained by a sink full of dish soap. I was washing dishes this morning, watching the suds, thinking about why foam fools people. Foam doesn’t clean. The part you can’t see does that. Foam just rides along, so we read foam as clean. The two stay linked right up until the bottle runs low, and the bubbles look exactly the same the day before and the day after. Your dashboard has the same problem. It’s worse than someone lying to you. Take one number. R&M is under budget. That’s accurate. The accounting is right to the penny. Now tell me what it means. It could mean the property just finished a full rehab and there’s nothing left to fix. It could mean it’s January and nothing breaks in the cold the way it does in July. It could mean a sharp maintenance lead running a genuinely tight shop. Or someone is pulling parts off a vacant unit to patch an occupied one, deferring everything that isn’t on fire, starving the asset to land a bonus. Four realities. One identical number. The dashboard shows you the number and stays silent on which story produced it. So you fill in the story yourself, and you reach for the one you were already hoping was true. This is Goodhart’s Law. The minute you put a number on a dashboard and hang a bonus on it, you’ve told everyone in the building which story you reward. People are not stupid. They produce that number using whichever reality is cheapest for them, and cheapest for them is rarely best for you. The metric was never the problem. Measuring it changed what it measures. The harder version includes you. We think we’re the one reading the dashboard. We’re also the one making one. The GP sending a quarterly to the LPs. The owner reporting to the capital partner. Somewhere up the chain, someone is looking at a number you produced and filling in the hopeful story, and in that picture you are the bubble. Asking for context doesn’t fix it. Every competent owner already asks why a number moved. That still can’t tell you which of the four stories you’re looking at, because all four moved it the same direction. The fix is narrower than skepticism. Never reward a number without tracking the thing that exposes which story produced it. Tie a bonus to R&M under budget, you have to read it next to deferred work order age and unit condition, or lean spend and a rotting building wear the same face on your screen. Reality doesn’t get erased by clean reporting. It gets deferred. A bad lease has a move-out date on it. Cannibalized maintenance is a capital bill with a fuse on it. The foam will always look like progress. That’s the whole reason you can’t read the bubbles to know if the dish is clean. What’s the best-looking number in your operation, and what would you track beside it to know which story it’s telling?
Leasing & ConversionCapital / Finance / InvestingOperations / Property ManagementHiring / People / LeadershipMindset / Mental Models / Decision MakingReal Estate (general)

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