Four Years of Lies. $100 Million Gone. One Predictable Ending. There’s a difference between bad luck and bad math. RAD Diversified claimed roughly 150% returns over four years. Over the same period, broad public real estate indexes did closer to 18%. This should have been a flashing warning light. In real estate, returns don’t just appear. They come from buying right, using leverage carefully, understanding the cycle, and executing well. Focus compounds those advantages. Luck still plays a role, but structure decides whether it’s fatal or helpful. And even then, outcomes cluster much closer to the middle than the extremes. When someone shows you numbers that live far outside reality, the correct response isn’t curiosity. It’s disbelief. Another quiet signal was focus. Or the lack of it. Single-family homes. Non-traded REITs. Joint ventures. Opportunity Zones. Loans paying double-digit yields. Crypto. NFTs. Golf courses. Diversification is a risk tool. Sprawl is often a distraction. The more moving parts you add, the harder it becomes to understand where returns actually come from. And when returns are hard to explain, they’re even harder to trust. “Too good to be true” doesn’t mean impossible. It means unlikely. And history is very consistent about how unlikely plays out. The market is brutally competitive. If someone has found a repeatable way to triple normal returns, they don’t need mass marketing to raise money. They need silence. Good investing isn’t about spotting miracles. It’s about walking away from improbabilities Full article linked below. https://lnkd.in/eYxG8Xpq