Some investment stories hit like a splashy IPO—high-profile, headline-grabbing, and full of moonshot potential. Others quietly deliver jaw-dropping returns without the fanfare. Matt Kaufman’s recent piece, The Quiet Beverage Bet Outpacing AI Hype: How OLIPOP’s Investors Are Winning, is a masterclass in how execution can trump excitement.

Kaufman takes us on a fascinating journey, comparing OpenAI—the godfather of generative AI—to OLIPOP, a five-year-old soda brand. Early OLIPOP investors are winning bigger than OpenAI’s. That’s right—a company making gut-friendly sodas with nostalgic branding has quietly outpaced one of the most hyped tech companies in history.

Let’s unpack the key lessons.

1. Hype Doesn’t Equal Returns

AI is eating the world, right? Sure—but the best investor returns don’t always come from the buzziest sectors.

• OpenAI has reshaped tech, fueled trillion-dollar CapEx spending, and sent NVIDIA to the stratosphere.

• OLIPOP sells soda. Delicious, fiber-packed, gut-friendly soda—but soda nonetheless.

• And yet, OLIPOP’s 256x investor return outpaces OpenAI’s 189x return for early backers.

The lesson? Execution > Excitement.

Big ideas are fun, but real investor money is made in strong businesses with real demand.

2. The Best Time to Invest Was Yesterday. The Second Best Time is at the Right Price.

Let’s talk entry valuations.

• OLIPOP’s seed investors entered at a $2.5M valuation—a ground-floor opportunity.

• OpenAI’s Series A investors started at $1B—a significantly higher hurdle for massive returns.

A 256x return is easier when you start at $2.5M than when you start at $1B.

Price discipline matters.

3. The Path to Profitability Shapes the Path to Investor Wealth

• OLIPOP is already profitable. It doesn’t need to raise more capital if it doesn’t want to.

• OpenAI burns billions. It requires continuous fundraising, which means continuous dilution for investors.

A business that can fund itself is an investor’s best friend.

4. Industry Matters, But Not the Way You Think

Tech investors often look down on consumer goods. But the OLIPOP vs. OpenAI story proves that simple, well-run businesses often yield the best risk-adjusted returns.

• AI is a money pit. Training costs, hardware constraints, cloud computing expenses—it’s an arms race.

• Soda? Much simpler. Supply chains, distribution, and branding—a predictable, profitable business model.

Not all industries are equal, but boring can be beautiful.

5. A Clean Exit is an Investor’s Dream

• OLIPOP has options—it can IPO, get acquired, or just keep compounding profits.

• OpenAI is complex—its structure, profitability timeline, and regulatory risks make an exit far less predictable.

Liquidity matters. OLIPOP investors can cash out sooner, while OpenAI’s are likely in for a long ride.

A Soda Beat AI, and That’s a Feature, Not a Bug

Kaufman’s article reminds us that the best investments aren’t always the flashiest.

Great investing isn’t about chasing hype—it’s about finding businesses that execute, grow, and compound returns.

Sometimes, the best bet isn’t the one changing the world. It’s just the one selling a lot of soda.

Big thanks to Matt Kaufman for an insightful and well-researched piece. Read the full article here. https://collabfund.com/blog/why-olipop-might-be-a-better-investment-than-openai/

And if you haven’t tried OLIPOP yet… maybe it’s time.